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Thomas Sanchez
Thomas Sanchez

HOME VALUES



Among the 400 largest housing markets tracked by Zillow, the company expects 238 markets to see positive home price growth between January 2023 and January 2024, while it expects six markets to remain flat and 156 markets to notch a home price decline over the next 12 months. Simply put: Zillow expects only 39% of major markets to post a home price decline over the coming year.




HOME VALUES



Between January 2023 and January 2024, Zillow expects some of the biggest home price upticks to occur in markets like Morristown, Tenn. (+5.1% forecasted growth), Rome, Ga. (+4.8%), Knoxville (+4.5%), Johnson City, Tenn. (+4.5%), and Atlantic City (+4.2%). Clearly, Zillow expects the U.S. Southeast to be the epicenter of home price growth in 2023.


Meanwhile, Zillow economists expect some of the biggest home price declines between January 2023 and January 2024 to occur in markets such as Lake Charles, La. (-7.2% forecasted decline), Houma, La. (-5%), San Jose (-3.5%), Los Angeles (-3.3%), and Las Vegas (-2.5%).


Not only does the West have a high concentration of rate-sensitive tech employers, but it also has overheated home prices that are vulnerable to mortgage rate spikes. If Western buyers were already stretching themselves thin while mortgage rates were low, it only makes sense that they'd finally push back once mortgage rates spiked.


Among the nation's 400 largest housing markets tracked by Zillow, 276 markets have seen local home prices fall from their respective 2022 peak. That includes 32 markets where home prices are down over 5% from their 2022 peak.


So far, the biggest seasonally adjusted home price declines have occurred in San Francisco (down 9.2%), Bend, Ore. (down 8.3%), Santa Cruz (down 8.1%), Boise (down 8%), and Austin (down 7.9%). At least that's according to the Zillow Home Value Index.


An analysis of Zillow Home Value Index data by Fortune (see chart above), finds that 79% of the nation's 200 largest housing markets saw a month-over-month home price decline in September. That figure has since been dropping, slowly but surely.


In October, 76% of those major markets saw a home price decline. In November and December, it was down to 64% and 67%, respectively. However, in January, just 47% of the nation's 200 largest housing markets registered a month-over-month home price decline.


As we move into spring homebuying season, housing experts maintain a watchful eye on the economy, which continues to be pulled in all directions by high inflation, steep interest rates, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and recession fears, to name a few.


At the same time, there are positive signals in the homebuilding realm. Following five consecutive months of declines, single-family construction starts in February rose 9.8%, and applications for building permits increased by 13.8% from the previous month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD.


In an exchange with Senator Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Powell acknowledged that raising the central bank interest rate increases borrowing costs for companies that develop new housing and makes financing and expanding production for suppliers more expensive. He also conceded that elevated fixed mortgage rates discourage homeowners with a low-rate fixed-rate mortgage from selling their homes.


Due, in part, to the ongoing inventory problem keeping home prices elevated, many economists predict the housing market is more likely to correct itself from the double-digit percentage jumps seen in home prices the past few years rather than crash.


However, some housing market watchers believe that homes in some areas could see sales and price growth, particularly in locations where home prices have remained affordable over the past few years in relation to median income.


The first step for a successful sale is to find a listing agent who knows the area and comes highly recommended. A good agent will work closely with you to price your home competitively while fielding questions and offers from prospective buyers.


Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2023 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. The issue is primarily an affordability crisis. High interest rates and inflated home values have made purchasing a home challenging for first-time homebuyers.


Through the prism of the real estate market and homeownership in Black neighborhoods, this report attempts to address the question: What is the cost of racial bias? This report seeks to understand how much money majority-Black communities are losing in the housing market stemming from racial bias, finding that owner-occupied homes in Black neighborhoods are undervalued by $48,000 per home on average, amounting to $156 billion in cumulative losses.


Majority-Black neighborhoods hold $609 billion in owner-occupied housing assets and are home to approximately 10,000 public schools and over 3 million businesses. We find that in the average U.S. metropolitan area, homes in neighborhoods where the share of the population is 50 percent Black are valued at roughly half the price as homes in neighborhoods with no Black residents.


According to our analysis, differences in home and neighborhood quality do not fully explain the devaluation of homes in Black neighborhoods. Homes of similar quality in neighborhoods with similar amenities are worth 23 percent less ($48,000 per home on average, amounting to $156 billion in cumulative losses) in majority Black neighborhoods, compared to those with very few or no Black residents.


In U.S. metropolitan areas, 10 percent of neighborhoods are majority Black, and they are home to 41 percent of the Black population living in metropolitan areas and 37 percent of the U.S. Black population. Though most residents are Black (14.4 million non-Hispanic Blacks) by definition, approximately 5 million non-Black Americans live in majority Black neighborhoods.


Metropolitan areas with greater devaluation of Black neighborhoods are more segregated and produce less upward mobility for the Black children who grow up in those communities. This analysis finds a positive and statistically significant correlation between the devaluation of homes in Black neighborhoods and upward mobility of Black children in metropolitan areas with majority Black neighborhoods.


Absolute difference in home value is measured as the difference in median home values between neighborhoods with at least 50% Black population and neighborhoods that are less than 1% Black, using self-reported home values from the American Community Survey. The devaluation analysis also analyzes median listing prices of homes overall and per square foot, using data from Zillow.


Structural characteristics are physical qualities of a home which predict its value, such as year built, square footage, number of rooms/bedrooms, and others (see text for full accounting of variables used). With the exception of square footage, which is incorporated into price per square foot measures used from Zillow, these data are aggregated to the neighborhood level in the analysis.


Neighborhood amenities are qualities which reflect the economic, demographic, and physical landscape of the neighborhood. Indicators which may affect home valuation include the quality of public education, walkability, access to jobs as measured by mean commute times, access to retail, and others (see text for full accounting of variables used).


Devaluation is defined as the percent discount in median home values between neighborhoods with 50% Black population and neighborhoods with no Black residents, after accounting for structural characteristics of homes and neighborhood amenities. In our preferred estimate, it is calculated by observing the relationship between median neighborhood home prices per square foot (from Zillow) and Black population shares across the full range of neighborhoods within individual metropolitan areas that have at least one majority Black neighborhood and at least one neighborhood with less than 1% Black population shares. In most, though not all, metropolitan areas with at least one neighborhood of each type, the percent difference is negative. Structural characteristics of homes and neighborhood amenities do not fully explain the absolute difference in home value.


The interactive map and dashboard below show how devaluation of Black homes plays out in different communities across the United States. The sample of metropolitan areas is limited to those with at least one majority Black neighborhood and one non-Black neighborhood, defined by having less than a 1% Black population share.


That means that after roughly two years of remarkable gains in equity during the pandemic, Houston homeowners should expect their home values to grow at a slower pace, if not fall slightly over the next year.


To see how the market shift is changing your home's value, take a look at typical home values in your zip code or city in the following maps and charts, using estimates by real estate firm Zillow, which tracks the value of houses both on and off the market.


Across Houston, typical home values are almost $23,700 more than they were one year ago, an increase of almost 9 percent, according to Zillow. From 2010 to 2020, the average annual increase in home value was 3.6 percent.


The term typical here refers to houses with values that fall within the 35th or 65th percentile, those that are roughly in the middle third of the pack in a given area, according to Zillow, excluding the most expensive and least expensive houses.


That means Houston homeowners should expect significantly more equity in their homes if they bought before the pandemic. Some homeowners, however, may hesitate to trade up if the rate on their existing mortgage is lower than current rates. Average mortgage rates were about 6.65 percent in the first week of March, compared with 3.76 percent a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac. 041b061a72


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